Is future predictable?
The answer is very vague, but very interesting.
Firstly, I am not talking about weather report for a week, expected results of poling etc...etc...But I am talking about the future of universe, wherein you want to know what is the position of certain galaxy after some thousands of years, this is the law which can give every parameter at some point of time in the future.
One thing I want to say about this is that if future is predictable, it can be obtained theoretically, by giving all the parameters of the universe as inputs. For example, if you give me that the present day temperature is so and so, and the earth has moved towards the sun by some distance, I can give the temperature rise in the earth's atmosphere. Like this, the pressure at each point in the universe, the gravities of the planets, the masses, the temperatures, everything can be given as inputs and the output is expected. Isn't this correct?
But now I am facing the biggest problem, I am not able to input one particular variable. This is "choice." Would I be able to predict the choices of the people in the universe, not even people, the animals, the trees, the rocks to that matter(presently don't ask me about the choices of the rocks and non-living things, because you are going to know in the future). So there is one random variable in the universe and that is choice.
If the choice of human beings or anything is also fixed, then for sure, future is predictable. If it is not then that is the only parameter which is making the future, not predictable. Every single choice in the universe is going to make some infinite number of universes.
This also concludes that your own decision at any instance is going to affect the whole universe at every point of time, for sure even though it is very small. For the same reason...
... "This does not make any difference" is absolutely wrong.
Firstly, I am not talking about weather report for a week, expected results of poling etc...etc...But I am talking about the future of universe, wherein you want to know what is the position of certain galaxy after some thousands of years, this is the law which can give every parameter at some point of time in the future.
One thing I want to say about this is that if future is predictable, it can be obtained theoretically, by giving all the parameters of the universe as inputs. For example, if you give me that the present day temperature is so and so, and the earth has moved towards the sun by some distance, I can give the temperature rise in the earth's atmosphere. Like this, the pressure at each point in the universe, the gravities of the planets, the masses, the temperatures, everything can be given as inputs and the output is expected. Isn't this correct?
But now I am facing the biggest problem, I am not able to input one particular variable. This is "choice." Would I be able to predict the choices of the people in the universe, not even people, the animals, the trees, the rocks to that matter(presently don't ask me about the choices of the rocks and non-living things, because you are going to know in the future). So there is one random variable in the universe and that is choice.
If the choice of human beings or anything is also fixed, then for sure, future is predictable. If it is not then that is the only parameter which is making the future, not predictable. Every single choice in the universe is going to make some infinite number of universes.
This also concludes that your own decision at any instance is going to affect the whole universe at every point of time, for sure even though it is very small. For the same reason...
... "This does not make any difference" is absolutely wrong.
3 Reactions:
The future is predictable when you map context gravities of systems round which most of the human relationship connections have already been invested in. This is why the local to global networking age we are all designing now needs such urgent care. Whether it sustains future generations or not will irreversibly be determined by what we map over the next 15 years at best and the next 5 years at worst. Back in 1984 our maps suggested roughly 2010 as the deadline for being inspired by a Nobel Laureate to search out 30000 openly replicable community rising projects http://egrameen.com is about the only solution centre on that map -verify future reference from 1984 at http://www.normanmacrae.com/netfuture.html
I believe that the human mind operates like a super advanced computer. that is each individuals actions are controlled by a specific thought process made up of a combination of brain chemistry and experience; there is nothing random about the human thought process- its just far to complex for modern man to accurately define or graph- not to mention unique in each person. i'm under the impression that all of excistance is a massive chain reaction- far to complex to be predicted, but nonetheless-predictable. i kind of feel trapped, as if maybe im just along for the ride that is my life- because there is nothing random about my thought process- I'm not truly responsible for making decisions-what's the point in living if everything's already set in stone?
I think that you can look at a system - whether something very large like globalisation or individual like a person - and predict often 2 opposite outcomes one of which will spiral, with nothing much in between possible unless you intervene at the system level before an exponential tipping point is breached
I think that the most interesting innovations (ones that have improved the human lot) are as much system intervention as pure physical invention.
However I dont side with Corey's pessimism or doubt. I hope he's overstating a bit. I dont remember my maternal grandad well as he died when I was 5 but I do rememebr his favourite motto was nothing is impossible. This probably reflected 25 years of being mentored by Gandhi. Originally my grandad as British raj judge passed the order to put Gandhi in prison; by the 1940s he was writing up the legalese of India's Independence. Optimism grounded in action learning is for me the thing to cheer every time you see it in friend or self. I have been lucky over te last year to get some distant mentoring from Muhammad Yunus as we edit a dvd of videos of ggod news conversation starters that we will be sending out to 10000 youth to rehearse what world's can be networked if openly determine to celebrate every quality of humanity http://yunus10000.com
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